Bidenomics and Pivoting Indo-US Geopolitics and Investments
Trumponomics and Indo-US Geopolitics
During the Trump Era, all the indices have doubled and his mantra of ‘Make America Great Again’ seem to have worked. Sino-US trade and geopolitics seems to be at its rock bottom. Modi-Trump bonhomie through Howdy Modi seems to have worked and also were the defense with the strengthening of the Quad. Trump was the most favourable President at the White House, India ever had. The Indian diaspora in the US were divided between Trump and Biden and expect that the Indo-US relations, trade and investment flows will grow stronger. Will this continue with the Biden presidency?
Bidenomics – The Local Politics – Walking on a Tight Rope
The Democrats have a very slender margin of 10 senators in the House of Representatives. Given the way the US had been divided down in the middle, it would be very difficult for the Biden administration to push for major policy initiatives to attain the administrative goals with the support of the pro-Democrat Republicans. The fiscal stimulus that would be required to push the US economic recovery in the new normal to pass fiscal stimulus or any bills with a simple majority would be a challenge . unless Democrats remaining unified or at least a few Republicans support Biden. The Biden administration has just revealed a USD1.9 trillion fiscal package, which is centred on providing up to an additional USD1,400 in direct payments to targeted income groups, along with state/local support, supplemental unemployment insurance, additional grants for businesses, and funding for testing and vaccine distribution. This would put combined past and potential coronavirus relief near USD5 trillion (or approximately 25% of GDP) when all is said and done. To fund all this, Biden would pivot the Trump Tax Cuts and Job Act to increase the taxes and also work on employment generation. In addition, the Democrats and Biden administration would focus on more strategic initiatives on green energy, infrastructure, education, health care, and broader social safety nets which would be as per the initial budget for these programs to be around around USD 2 trillion.
Bidenomics – The International Trade Relations
Bidenomics would pivot to a multilateral approach to reduce the trade disputes and tensions in the North American neighbours and the EU. Trumponomic “Phase 1” trade deal with China may has not dented Chinese exports to the US in 2020 and the trade surplus with the U.S. reached a five-year high of USD 535 bn in 2020. Agreed-to increases in China’s imports from the U.S. have fallen well below target. A recent further escalation of tensions (e.g. around the listing of Chinese firms in the U.S.) may complicate matters, but Biden’s at the helm should help reassure markets and trade relations globally.
Bidenomics – The Indo-US Relations Pivot
Biden recently announced military spending support to Pakistan to maintain its presence in Afghanistan. This is a major departure from Trump and would be a bone of contention between Indo-US relations and defense spending and relations in the future. Biden has in the past not supported India’s space program which led India to be Atma Nirbhar and develop its own technology to be a leader in the space race. These past Biden hangovers would be difficult to remove for a steady Indo-US relationships. From an investment flows to India, many of the Indo-US think tanks and forums believe that there would be no rolling back to the last few years of Indo-US relations. We are definitely bullish on the Bidenonmics and as the overall markets will still provide returns for equity and risky assets given the improving macroeconomic situation, fueled by significant fiscal impulses and the local political mandate of Biden and Democrats which is very slim.
Wishing Bidenomics to rebuild the New Normal World!