My Key Note Address at the TeleMedicon 2021
KK’s Blogs n Presentations
Inside-Out Approach to Innovating Healthcare Funding in India – My Tedx Talk
My Tedx Talk on Inside-Out Approach to Innovating Healthcare Funding in India
Financial Planning in Turbulent Times
My virtual talk at GGNIMT on 20 March 2021
Prime Minister’s Task Force on Food and Agriculture Reforms
The Executive Summary of the Recommendations of Prime Minister (Atal Bihari Bajpayee) Task Force on Food and Agriculture Reform in India presented in November 1998
Also Read Blog: Food And Agri Reforms | Kapil Khandelwal KK
Also Listen Podcast
Covid Pandemic is Bust : The Population Pandemic Awaits
Introduction
Recently, the World Health Organisation (WHO) played Beating the Retreat on Covid-19 and proclaimed that the global emergency on Covid is Over. The end tally of the Covid War Losses:
- 765,222,932 confirmed cases;
- 6,921,614 deaths;
- Glaring short comings of healthcare infrastructure;
- Economic and social disruption:
- Nearly half of the world’s 3.3 billion global workforce are at risk of losing their livelihoods, pushing nearly 0.82 billion into extreme poverty
- 25% increase in prevalence of anxiety and depression worldwide, affecting the mental health and well-being of people of all ages.
- Entire food system is affected due to weather changes and disruptions in the supply chains, reducing access to healthy, safe and diverse diets.
While the post Covid war reparations are underway, there was another bugle on the population front. Last year we added the 8th billion human on earth. This is going to be another pandemic in the waiting. The healthcare needs for 8 billion people is a horror war movie in the making. Closer home, India is going to be the most populated country in the world next year.
The Demographics of Population Pandemic
Global Population Pandemic
As a thumb rule, global population growth will stabilize when the birth rate and the death rate are equal. We will continue to grow till the fertility rate ie. the number of children born per woman falls below 2.1. As per various scenarios, the world population, currently around 8 billion, is expected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, and then decline gradually.
![Covid Pandemic is Bust : The Population Pandemic Awaits 6 How we reached 8 Billion People on Earth?](https://kapilkhandelwal.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Pop-Pyramid-300x169.jpg)
India’s Population Pandemic
India’s population is expected to peak at 1.65 billion by 2060 and then decline gradually. According to reports woman fertility rate falls below 2.1 by 2030. India’s demographic transition from a high-fertility and high-mortality society to a low-fertility and low-mortality society. (From 2.33 children per woman in 2015 to 2.03 children per woman in 2021, while the life expectancy at birth has increased from 67.7 years in 2015 to 69.4 years in 2021. The population pyramid also shows that the number of children under 15 years old peaked in 2011 and has been declining since then, while the number of elderly above 65 years old has been increasing steadily. Also read: According to a report by The Times of India, India’s population will stabilize only in 2050 (2047 is our Amrit Kaal Amrit Kaal : Budget 2022 | Kapil Khandelwal KK) when the death and birth rate will be balanced. Also we have a higher than usual healthcare acuity due to our genetic make up Tedx Archives | Kapil Khandelwal KK
Managing India Population Pandemic, Its About Quality of Life and Health
For the Covid pandemic, India quickly ramped up the production of Covid Vaccine and also played the vaccine diplomacy. Over billion doses of Covid vaccine was supplied globally to different countries apart from immunising billion Indians. India has built global scale capacity for facing the pandemics. India is also looking to champion the agenda of healthcare for the Global South in its Chairmanship for the G-20 this year. But the issue around the demographics of the population pandemic goes beyond providing for healthcare.
As we plan ahead for the Amrit Kaal 2047 when India’s population growth stabilises, I have been writing and speaking on what is required. Let’s use the Roti, Kapda, Makaan, Dava-Daru (the last one is already addressed in my Tedx Talk Read Healthcare For All | Kapil Khandelwal KK)
- Food security: We have to feed 1.6 billion mouths by 2047 two square mealsx365 days a year. We don’t have enough land mass to be able to produce food at that large quantum. Intensive, industrial scale agriculture would have to be introduced with Green Revolution 2.0. (see PM Task Force Report on Food and Agri Reform Food And Agri Reforms | Kapil Khandelwal KK)
- Water Scarcity: For sustaining life, we had addressed linking of north rivers to south rivers and regenerating the water table
- Sustainable Smart Cities: by 2047 over 60% of the population will be urbanized and would need sustainable and healthy living environment on a very concentrated urban land mass with lower levels of pollution.
- Healthcare for All: We urgently need to invest USD 360 billion to come up to global standards on healthcare metrics. In addition, another USD 675 billion in the healthcare and life sciences value chain to sustain our current and future population and the health acuity today.
Let’s live and let live in a world that can sustain this population pandemic!
Assisted by ChatGPT 😉
Also See Presentations
Also Listen to Podcast
How are Things Moving? The Future of Mobility
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Confused about which personal mobility option to select. The traditional petrol/diesel option, or the hybrids or fully electric vehicles. The post covid scenario globally for the automotive and mobility industry is not so clear. QuoteUnquote with KK and Chetan Maini, Co-Founder and Chairman at Sun Mobility and Creator of Reva, India First Electric Car in 1999 we discuss about where the future of the automotive and mobility is moving. This is on the backdrop of Elon Musk and Tesla announcing a USD 10Tn investment to make the earth more sustainable. Chetan’s keynote presentation at Nasscom Product Conclave 10 years ago looked like a cut and paste in #Tesla Investor Day Presentation.
Tesla Investor Day
Sustainability of Delivery Apps
The Future of Indo-US Relations. Growing Positively by ‘Quad’rapuling
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QuoteUnquote with KK and Dr. Mukesh Aghi, President and CEO, US-India Strategic Partnership Forum where we discussed Trump arrest, India’s NATO membership, US Visa issues, geo politics, trade, investment and fostering a growth-oriented relationship between the two countries.
Bidenomics and Pivoting Indo-US Geopolitics and Investments
Bidenomics | Kapil Khandelwal KK
Previous Podcasts
Asian Trade and Geo Politics in the Face of Russia-Ukraine Conflict
QuoteUnQuote with KK and Dr. Parag Khanna Founder & Managing Partner of FutureMap and Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum www.paragkhanna.com
World in Biden Era – Indo-US Relations, Geopolitics and Investments
QuoteUnquote with KK and Sridhar Chityala, Chairman and Managing Partner Elevate Innovation Partners. He is a thought Leader on Indo-US GeoPolitics, Trade and Investments and globally recognized leader in the financial services industry on the future of Indo-US ties
Growing Human Connect Positively: A Playbook
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In a world which is getting more lonelier, QuoteUnquote with KK provides a hug of “Human Connect” across various dimensions with Manoj Gursahani, Author, Business Coach, Global Strategist Home | Manoj K Gursahani (manojgursahani.com)
The World Happiness Report from 2021 has been highlighting the increasing loneliness in the world and its impact on happiness in humans.
It’s in our human DNA and brain to connect with other humans as we are most evolved species on earth. Human connection lowers anxiety, depression, and suicide ideation, and how improving our connection with ourselves helps us better connect with others. Lily neurosciences. cpp human capital did an international study in 2008 and they asked the question of people tell me about conflict do you have it in your life 85 percent of the respondents said yes they have conflict with other human beings at times in their life 29% nearly one-third say they have conflict with others in their life always or frequently they asked why is there conflict between you and others 49% nearly have said it’s because of personality clashes or ego as I study that I see for me that personality clashes is the result of ego. So does human connect vary human personality type to type. How do we increase our human connection quotient.
![Growing Human Connect Positively: A Playbook 11 The Human Connect](https://kapilkhandelwal.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Human-Connect.jpg)
World Happiness Report 2022
Previous Podcasts
Blindspot : The Global Rise of Unhappiness: How Leaders Missed It?
QuoteUnquote with KK and Gallup Team
Rohit Kar, Relator | Restorative | Futuristic | Analytical | Significance
Kristjan Archer, Command | Competition| Activator | Achiever | Arranger
Book Link : https://amzn.eu/d/fGuDA3y
Good Governance and Happy Citizens
QuoteUnquote with KK and Dr Kiran Bedi, Author, Woman Leader, Social Activist, India’s first and highest-ranking Woman Police Officer, Asian Nobel Peace Prize Winner, Politician and Ex-Governor of Pondicherry
Book Link: https://amzn.eu/d/b54xfL4
Common Man’s Happiness Economics
QuoteUnquote with KK and K. V. Subramanian, Ph.D., Professor of Finance, Indian School of Business; Ex Chief Economic Adviser, Govt of India
To Happiness & Beyond: Business Models for Delivering Beyond Happiness
QuoteUnquote with KK and Jenn Lim author of Beyond Happiness & CEO of Delivering Happiness (DH)
Karan Behl is Founder and CEO of Happiitude
Book Link: https://amzn.eu/d/cr1evAa
Everlasting Peace and Happiness for the World in the ISKON Philosophy
QuoteUnquote with KK and Gauranga Das, Legendary Monk and Director of the Govardhan Ecovillage, and Co-President of the ISKCON Chowpatty temple
How Can Social Tech Ventures Deliver Better Impact and Happiness to Rural India – With or Without 5G?
QuoteUnquote with KK and Dr Aaditeshwar Seth, Author, Founder Gram Vaani, Associate professor in the Department of Computer Science and Engineering at IIT Delhi
Book Link: https://www.cse.iitd.ernet.in/~aseth/act.html
Living in the Age of Disasters: From Multilateral to Bilateral Aid
Introduction
In July 2013, I wrote an article titled The Business of Disasters in my column (w)Health Check ((W)Health Check | Kapil Khandelwal KK). The idea in the article was to encourage the corporate sector in India to innovate business models to manage disasters. (see the text of the article below). The world in the second decade of the twenty first century has witnessed all the types of disasters conceivably possible that has left behind deaths and devastation. A lot has been spoken and written on biological disaster during and post Covid-19 pandemic. The ability to impact these threats is beyond control of the people and more in the hands of the healthcare systems managed by the relevant Governments around the world. We should now discuss on the Geophysical and Hydro-Metrological Disasters where there is still lack of understanding.
The organizational set up and confidence in the multilateral agencies has definitely been dented. What alternatives does the world have now to face the incoming disasters?
Global Maps of Geophysical and Hydro-Metrological Disasters
The global map of Geophysical and Hydro-Metrological Disasters provides that not the regions around the world are at mortality risk of such disasters.
![Living in the Age of Disasters: From Multilateral to Bilateral Aid 13 Global Map of Mortality due to Floods and Earthquakes](https://kapilkhandelwal.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Global-Map-300x169.jpg)
There are many prediction models available to inform where these disasters will hit next with a fair amount of accuracy. Therefore, unlike biological disasters which are hard to predict before they strike, there is a measure of preparedness that is possible to manage Geophysical and Hydro-Metrological Disasters when they strike. Still the multilateral agencies have not been preparing to meet these eventualities.
Lessons from Recent Disasters
Biological Disaster: Covid 19 Outbreak
During the Covid-19 outbreak, we have witnessed how global multilateral organisations like the World Health Organisation (WHO) were incapable of dealing with the situation that the then US President Donald Trump decided to pull out of the WHO as its major sponsor. Moreover, the manner in which the WHO approved the covid vaccine and its effectiveness is now out. As a result countries like India has to suffer in releasing its vaccine to its own people or supply it globally. Months later release of other countries vaccines, did India supply its more effective vaccine to over 100 countries on bilateral basis. But the delay India faced by WHO for approval of its vaccine lead to flooding of ineffective vaccines.
Geophysical and Hydro-Metrological Disaster
Recently earthquakes and floods which have hit several countries, the multilateral agencies such as International Red Cross were not capable enough to handle the devastation. As a result, many countries have responded to the disaster based on their relations with the devastated country. Turkey earthquake is an example. We still do not know what is going to happen. But major first responders to such countries were on bilateral basis. Here also India responded to Turkey’s request by sending its National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) teams. It’s another issue that Pakistan did not allow Indian aircraft passage through its airspace to reach Turkey faster.
Rise of Bilateralism and Its Risks
Since late 2010s, the financial support received of the member countries to the multilateral countries has been gradually reducing. They have been stretched to maintain their administrative budgets versus funding disaster management operations.
The additional capacity for disaster management which strikes countries in one stroke of nature, lies with other countries in limited measure as multilateral agencies are not adequate enough to handle to situation. These capabilities when aggregated would barely be sufficient to manage the crisis through the disaster. Let’s also understand that bilateral aid and support by other countries is motivated by diplomatic relations and ties. The current Turkey and Syria earthquake demonstrates this vividly. Turkey got the majority of the bilateral aid and support while Syria was not. Another example is the great floods in Pakistan where India’s aid was not requested nor India provided it. Moreover, much of the aid that Pakistanis received was never delivered to the people suffering. This acerbates the plight of the people suffering in these disasters. Therefore geo-political considerations come into play to support disaster management bilaterally. This brings to the point of the risks of rising bilateral flow of disaster management aid, support and services to countries in disaster. Some of these include:
- Bilateral aid and support may come with the strings and expectation of support to the doners by the receivers in international politics, trade and commerce at a later stage
- The aid and support may not be fairly distributed across the political boundaries which are impacted
- Like many aid projects that I have worked in Africa, end abruptly as soon as the crisis is stabilized. The longer-term rehabilitation is not considered in bilateral aid and support. The same may be true in current Turkey-Syria earthquakes.
- These incidents also become an opportunity to debt trap the countries which are financially and economically week. Pakistan is a case in point after the floods to Chinese debt-trap.
- The checker board of international diplomacy in such circumstances may create more tensions for the donors in the future when other countries compare the situation in their own backyard when it had occurred and who stood up to support them bilaterally.
- Political unrest in the donor countries over bilateral support to other countries provided.
Given these risks, would it not be prudent to organize private enterprise business models with innovative financial models to sustain these businesses (see my article below). These were initial thoughts in 2013 by me. But given the frequency of disasters the world and its countries are facing, it become evident that rather than expecting bilateral aid and support, the fully life cycle of disaster management can be managed by private enterprises with full disclosures and accountability. Many ESG and impact funds would definitely invite such ideas of such private enterprises.
Article: The Financials of Disasters
It is time for the corporate sector to take over disaster risk management and disaster medicine in India
Background
Probably the greatest concentration of pilgrims in any region in the world occurs in India’s mountain regions of Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Uttar Pradesh, where 9.3 million pilgrims each year arrive at the major entry point into the Pahari region. Between 2001 and 2010, the number of visitors to the state rose nearly 200 percent to 30.3 million. Major Hindu shrines located in the state, about 70 percent of the tourists who visit the state visit religious sites. However, last months pilgrim disaster in Uttarakhand with the search and rescue operations for the pilgrims needs to be reviewed. With large-scale politicking, drama and oneupmanship by the political parties in the aftermath of the disaster, requires an assessment on the failure of the government in providing services in such situations and leaves me wondering on the areas where different business models can be operated by the private sector in the health and well being of people in such situations.
1. Sequence of a disaster: “befores”, “durings” and “afters”.
2. Triggering events and coupling causes. 3. Large-scale damage to human life and environment. 4. Large economic costs. 5. Large social costs. 6. HOT (human, organizational and technological) and RIP (regulatory, infrastructural and preparedness) factors. 7. Multiple stakeholder involvement and conflict. 8. Immediate and longer-term responses. 9. Crisis resolution attempts. 10. Focus on symptoms not causes. |
What is Disaster and Disaster Medicine?
A disaster is not a “crisis” in the traditional meaning of the word – a situation in which important decisions involving threat and opportunity have to be made in a particularly short time – rather, disasters involve management procedures which must be maintained and management problems coped with under conditions of major technical emergency involving threats of injury and loss of life. (See Box). There are two types of disasters – natural and technological disasters. Natural disasters include three specific groups:
- Hydro-meteorological disasters. Including floods and wave surges, storms, droughts and related disasters (extreme temperatures and forest/scrub fires), and landslides and avalanches.
- Geophysical disasters. Divided into earthquakes and tsunamis and volcanic eruptions.
- Biological disasters. Covering epidemics and insect infestations.
The technological disasters comprise three groups, which are:
- Industrial accidents. Such as chemical spills; collapses of industrial infrastructures; explosions; fires, gas leaks; poisoning; radiation.
- Transport accidents. By air, rail, road or water means of transport.
- Miscellaneous accidents. Collapses of domestic/non-industrial structures; explosions; fires.
The effects of theses disasters can be view on health and well being from five different perspectives. These include:
- preparedness and availability of medical and health facilities, services, personnel and equipment;
- immediate casualties and deaths caused by the disaster;
- secondary illness and deterioration of health conditions following the disaster;
- destruction or damage to medical and health centres and services;
- response capability of the health services and the capacity for post-disaster recovery.
The response to health problems of such magnitude, under adverse and literally catastrophic conditions, cannot be sufficient with mere emergency medicine or just the provision of relief. Disasters, particularly the one in Uttarakhand are not merely very large accidents; they involve complex public health issues and health management problems at a time when the normal coping mechanisms are disrupted or even out of action. In recent years, the health profession has, to this end, developed new approaches and a new discipline now referred to as “disaster medicine”.
Disaster Medicine is the study and collaborative application of various health specialties – e.g. paediatrics, epidemiology, communicable diseases, nutrition, public health, emergency surgery, military medicine, community care, social medicine, international health – to the prevention, immediate response, humanitarian care and rehabilitation of the health problems arising from disaster, in cooperation with other non-medical disciplines involved in comprehensive disaster management. |
In case of floods like that in Uttarakhand the risks of infectious diseases and of malnutrition are real, and the necessary personnel, medicine and supplies should be geared to those needs.
Different Business Models and Opportunities Addressing Disasters in India:
With the occurrence and intensity of disasters increasing in India, there are several business models that we can look as. This is not an exhaustive assessment of the opportunities, but an initial map that can be used to build on to the same.
Pilgrimage Travel/Health Advisory Services
There is no risk rating and advisory services in India that provides travellers with information in the risk rating at different times of the year or on a general travel situation. There are no personalized services that provide information and questions to pilgrims health, security, medical information such as vaccination requirements, infectious diseases common in destinations, food and water safety, and tips on staying healthy while on pilgrimage. Also there are no travel information on emergency medical and other support services. Private weather forecasting and advisory business models do exists. This can be an extension to their business.
Personalised Emergency Medical Care and Evacuation
Membership based services for providing emergency medical care and evacuation is the need of the hour. The services should include evaluation, airlifting, trauma management from the disaster. The services should be followed by consistent protocols with coordination and rapid. One of the areas where a centralized control room which can co-ordinate with the victims and their family members is an essential part of the service. In case of international pilgrims, the service should provide assistance with passport documentation and visa clearances during emergencies, so that the border transits can be smooth.
Specialised Hospitals near the Disaster Zone
With the intensity of disasters increasing in occurrences, there is an opportunity for setting up small specialized hospitals that can cater to the disasters in a specialized way and can be an extension for the supply chain and logistics to the operations in the disaster zone. These hospitals can provide medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, and medical consumables to remote site support.
Medical College in Disaster Medicine in India
There are several institutes of excellence in India that provide courses and degrees in disaster management. However, like the US where there is a board of disaster medicine with special curriculum and licensure of working professionals in this field of medicine, there is no medical college or National Center of Excellence in India providing UG or PG courses. India can well be served by this branch of specializing doctors from a recognized Center of Excellence in Disaster Medicine.
A Public-Private Corporation for Disaster Risk Management
India is one of the countries that consistently ranks amongst the top-5 countries in the world where most of the disasters strike. The lack of faith in the state government of Uttarakhand by the faithful devotees of other states and independent operations by individual state governments to search, rescue and airlift the victims itself gives rise to the business of disaster risk management that could be outsourced to an independent company by these state governments rather than political oneupmnship! On a serious note, other countries that are as disaster prone as India such as Phillipines have used public-private partnerships to disaster risk management using community participation and consistently reduced disaster risks year on year! This will not only create employment opportunities in the community, but also infrastructure and logistics to handle risk mitigation measures on a real time basis.
Some Interesting Business Models in Place
There are some very interesting business models in place for disaster risk management around the world in operation. Some of the ones that need a mention are as under:
Reuters Alertnet:
AlertNet is a free humanitarian news service run by Thomson Reuters Foundation covering crises worldwide. The award-winning website provides news and information on natural disasters, conflicts, refugees, hunger, diseases and climate change.
International SOS:
International SOS is the world’s leading medical and travel security services company. Their enterprise services help organizations protect their people across the globe. Our teams work night and day from more than 700 locations in 76 countries.
Doctors Without Borders
Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is an international medical humanitarian organization created by doctors and journalists in France in 1971. Today, MSF provides independent, impartial assistance in more than 60 countries to people whose survival is threatened by violence, neglect, or catastrophe, primarily due to armed conflict, epidemics, malnutrition, exclusion from health care, or natural disasters. MSF provides independent, impartial assistance to those most in need. MSF also reserves the right to speak out to bring attention to neglected crises, challenge inadequacies or abuse of the aid system, and to advocate for improved medical treatments and protocols. In 1999, MSF received the Nobel Peace Prize.
Reflecting Forward
The events that have unfolded in the face of disasters in India require execution and not politicking. It is time private enterprise take over where Government has failed to deliver just like main stream healthcare to the masses, it is time for taking over Disaster Risk Management and Disaster Medicine in India.
Growing into the Space Frontiers
Podcast
QuoteUnquote with KK and Sanjay Nekkanti is the CEO and founder of Dhruva Space Private Limited, the company behind sending the private satellite into space from India 2023
We have all dreamt about going into space. Listen to India’s space entrepreneur who dreamt it and launched India’s first private satellite into space. In this podcast, we discuss the India’s private space and satellite program, space research, innovation and start up ecosystem, growth opportunities for Indian space entrepreneurs, future space race and economy how can India win the race.